{"id":66111,"date":"2024-09-18T09:00:33","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T09:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ushopwell.com\/ublog\/difference-in-expectations-vs-surprises-in-the-forex-market-25bp-cut-vs-50-bp-cut\/"},"modified":"2024-09-18T09:00:33","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T09:00:33","slug":"difference-in-expectations-vs-surprises-in-the-forex-market-25bp-cut-vs-50-bp-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ushopwell.com\/ublog\/difference-in-expectations-vs-surprises-in-the-forex-market-25bp-cut-vs-50-bp-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Difference in Expectations vs Surprises in the Forex Market! 25bp cut vs 50 bp cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"youtubomatic-video-container\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"580\" height=\"380\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WQ26lttQGYw?autoplay=1&#038;controls=1&#038;hl=en\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s a big day today, with the FOMC rate decision happening tomorrow morning at 4 a.m. Australian time. Right now, 66% of the market is expecting a 50 basis points cut. But, I have to ask \u2013 does that seem realistic given the current conditions? Inflation is still rising, core CPI is higher than expected, retail sales are up, and the jobs numbers are through the roof.<\/p>\n<p>What do you think? Are you in the 25 basis points camp, or are you still thinking 50? I\u2019d love to hear your thoughts in the comments because I&#8217;m curious to know what you\u2019re expecting from the FOMC tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s dive a little deeper into this. Every time the Fed cuts rates\u2014whether it\u2019s by 25, 50, or even 75 basis points\u2014the US dollar tends to strengthen. History shows that after the first rate cut, the US dollar rallies. And that\u2019s exactly what I expect to see in the coming days or weeks if we get a 25 basis points cut. The US Dollar Index is hovering around a support level of 100.100, and with high inflation, slow economic growth, and rising labor costs, I expect a 25 basis points cut along with a hawkish statement from the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>Now, how does this affect trading? My trade idea is a short on EUR\/USD. Of course, this isn\u2019t a recommendation\u2014just some food for thought on what might happen if we get that 25 basis points cut tomorrow. I\u2019ll be up at 3 a.m., coffee in hand, ready for what\u2019s bound to be a big moment in the market.<\/p>\n<p>What about gold? Historically, when the Fed cuts rates, commodities, especially gold, go up. Investors tend to move their money from fixed income to safe assets like gold when they see the Fed on a rate-cutting path. And don\u2019t forget what I\u2019ve been saying\u2014$3,000 gold by the end of 2024 is still in play. With central banks, especially China and the US, buying up gold reserves, we\u2019re already seeing the price climb toward that target.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s more on the horizon too. We\u2019ve got CPI releases for the UK and Europe later today, but honestly, the FOMC decision is likely to overshadow these data points. Brace yourself for some volatility ahead\u2014this is going to be a busy 24 hours.<\/p>\n<p>Remember, with volatility comes opportunity\u2014but also risk. Manage your trades wisely, and good luck! See you tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>Register here for the next webinar: <a href=\"https:\/\/acy.com\/en\/education\/webinars\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/acy.com\/en\/education\/webinars\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Join Luca&#8217;s Telegram Trading Feed: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/t.me\/+<\/a>bkfmaA76P2VlMTQ1<\/p>\n<p>Free Trading eBook Series: <a href=\"https:\/\/acy.com\/en\/education\/ebook\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/acy.com\/en\/education\/ebook\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvRYPBqz1EhkWyp5Tg3qwZCV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvRYPBqz1EhkWyp5Tg3qwZCV<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQ4HLCoPaU_AhfjABFgHAaX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQ4HLCoPaU_AhfjABFgHAaX<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQfwLPLln7cRwnB8HD6cvEj\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQfwLPLln7cRwnB8HD6cvEj<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQWsNuQajRyLEAzNlXwufpi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQWsNuQajRyLEAzNlXwufpi<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQUgtfKZEfdPLg7iOEjcxFp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/playlist?list=PLpHJMh3UuCvQUgtfKZEfdPLg7iOEjcxFp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Catch up with the latest news and market analysis here: <a href=\"https:\/\/acy.com\/en\/market-news\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/acy.com\/en\/market-news<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Get in touch today:<br \/>\nWeb: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acy.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.acy.com<\/a><br \/>\nTwitter: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ACY_Securities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ACY_Securities<\/a><br \/>\nFacebook: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/acy.securities\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/acy.securities\/<\/a><br \/>\nSpotify: <a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2g4Py8AuAqUIxci9efdMmm?si=ac6ff082c5c84f78\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2g4Py8AuAqUIxci9efdMmm?si=ac6ff082c5c84f78<\/a><br \/>\nPhone:<br \/>\nAustralia<br \/>\n1300 729 171<br \/>\nInternational<br \/>\n+61 2 9188 2999 <\/p>\n<p>#acysecurities #FOMC #thefed #RateCut# keylevels #forexanalysis #forex #trading #analysis #audjpy #audusd #eurgbp #eurusd #eurjpy #gbpjpy #gbpusd #nzdjpy #nzdusd #usdcad #usdchf #usdjpy #usdollar #gold #xauusd #sp500 #nas100 #bitcoin #btcusd #oilprices #uswti #crudeoil #oiltrading #silver #xagusd<br \/>\n@ACYSecuritiesAustralia<\/p>\n<p>Foreign exchange and derivatives trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets.<br \/>\nBefore you decide to trade foreign exchange and derivatives, we encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience.<br \/>\nACY Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL: 403863) provides general advice that does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider if you are part of our Target Market by reviewing our TMD and read our FSG and PDS to ensure you fully understand the risks. The content of this presentation must not be construed as personal advice and the information in this presentation is prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs; please seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. <\/p>\n<p>ACY Securities Pty Ltd is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC AFSL: 403863). Registered address: ACY Tower, Level 18, 799 Pacific Hwy, Chatswood NSW 2067. AFSL authorised us to provide financial services to Australian Residents or Businesses.<\/p>\n<p>ACY Capital LLC (&#8216;ACY LLC&#8217;), ACY LLC is incorporated in St Vincent and the Grenadines (Company number: 2610 LLC 2022). Registered address: Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Centre, Beachmont, Kingstown.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a9 2018 &#8211; 2024 ACY Securities is a brand name of ACY AU and ACY LLC, ACY Securities Pty Ltd. All rights Reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s a big day today, with the FOMC rate decision happening tomorrow morning at 4 a.m. Australian time. Right now, 66% of the market is expecting a 50 basis points cut. But, I have to ask \u2013 does that seem realistic given the current conditions? Inflation is still rising, core CPI is higher than expected, retail sales are up, and the jobs numbers are through the roof. What do you&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","tve_updated_post":"","tve_custom_css":"","tve_user_custom_css":"","tve_globals":{},"tcb2_ready":0,"tcb_editor_enabled":0,"tve_landing_page":"","_tve_header":"","_tve_footer":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Difference in Expectations vs Surprises in the Forex Market! 25bp cut vs 50 bp cut - UshopWell.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ushopwell.com\/ublog\/difference-in-expectations-vs-surprises-in-the-forex-market-25bp-cut-vs-50-bp-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Difference in Expectations vs Surprises in the Forex Market! 25bp cut vs 50 bp cut - UshopWell.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s a big day today, with the FOMC rate decision happening tomorrow morning at 4 a.m. Australian time. 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Right now, 66% of the market is expecting a 50 basis points cut. But, I have to ask \u2013 does that seem realistic given the current conditions? Inflation is still rising, core CPI is higher than expected, retail sales are up, and the jobs numbers are through the roof. 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