Rob Roy’s view on the US market is cautiously optimistic but acknowledges significant uncertainty. The SPY is holding near key Fibonacci and moving average support levels, suggesting a possible bounce, but a break below 575 could trigger a deeper drop to around 540. Economic news, including a weaker-than-expected but stable jobs report and Fed Chair Powell’s openness to rate cuts if labor weakens, provided some relief. However, market volatility remains elevated, and bond market movements indicate lingering uncertainty. The tech sector, including Apple (AAPL), is consolidating, while small caps (IWM) have underperformed, highlighting market divergence. Cryptos experienced a brief surge on government reserve news but have since retraced. Overall, key support levels must hold for any meaningful recovery, and the coming weeks will be critical for confirming direction.

:: How to Subscribe to TRADEFINDER LIVE! for Free ::
————————————————————————————
Become a FREE Tradefinder Member using the link below.
As a subscriber you’ll watch live as Rob finds new trading opportunities each week.
► Registration Link: https://ewotrader.com/tradefinder/

:: Subscribe to the HUBB Channel for Live Updates and Q&A ::
—————————————————————————————————
To participate in Q&A with Rob Roy, join us at the HUBB YouTube channel. Click the link below now to subscribe for free.
► Registration Link: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCw4SxOmqzUx1TK0DajR92Jw?sub_confirmation=1

:: Sections in this Video ::
————————————————————————————
00: 00 – Introduction
00: 24 – US Market Update (SPY)
02: 21 – Economic News
04: 30 – SPY
05: 25 – VIX
06: 40 – TLT
08: 02 – TNX
09: 05 – SPY (cont.)
09: 25 – UNG
10: 33 – USO
11: 38 – GLD
12: 39 – SLV
14: 08 – Bitcoin (BTC)
15: 48 – ETH
16: 45 – XRP
17: 21 – SOL
18: 00 – ADA
19: 26 – DIA
20: 43 – QQQ
21: 41 – IWM (TradeFinder Case Study Consideration)
24: 56 – AAPL
27: 22 – PLTR
28: 56 – TSLA
30: 06 – NVDA
31: 05 – AVGO
32: 25 – US Dollar
34: 10 – INDA
35: 26 – TradeFinder Info

:: To receive TRADE ALERTS for our strategies see links below ::
————————————————————————————————
► EWO Volatility Strategy https://ewotrader.com/the-volatility-strategy/
► EWO Impulse Strategy https://ewotrader.com/the-impulse-strategy/
► EWO Time Strategy https://ewotrader.com/the-time-strategy/

:: Other Links to Follow Us::
——————————————–
► Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/elliottwaveoptions/
► Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/elliottwaveoptions/
► LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/company/elliott-wave-options/
► Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/ewotrader
► Website: http://www.ewotrader.com

After holding key support levels, the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains in a precarious position. While the market recovered from an early dip below 570, it is still struggling to reclaim the 10-day and 50-day moving averages. The 61.8% Fibonacci level is acting as support, but a break below 575 could lead to a full retracement toward 540. Despite the recent decline, the market is slightly oversold, increasing the probability of a relief bounce. However, for a sustained upside move, the SPY needs to break back above 590.

Economic news played a major role in market movement. The latest nonfarm payrolls report came in weaker than expected but was not as bad as feared, leading to mixed reactions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments also impacted sentiment—he acknowledged that while rate cuts are possible, they would only be considered if labor market weakness increases. He emphasized that uncertainty, especially around tariffs, is a key market concern. The market has currently priced in three rate cuts for the year, but whether they materialize remains uncertain.

The VIX (volatility index) is behaving differently than usual, experiencing sustained heightened volatility rather than isolated spikes. This suggests a market on edge, with continued fluctuations expected. Meanwhile, the bond market (TLT, TNX) has also been volatile, with yields recently ticking back up. If rates move higher, it could pressure equities, particularly growth stocks.

Finally, individual stocks are mixed. Apple (AAPL) is consolidating in a triangle, Tesla (TSLA) must hold 250 to avoid a drop to 200, and NVIDIA (NVDA) is approaching key support near 100. Meanwhile, Broadcom (AVGO) bounced on earnings but needs to reclaim key moving averages to sustain a rally.

With market uncertainty still high, the coming weeks will determine whether key support levels hold or if deeper declines are ahead.