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My trade plan for next week is simple. In today’s video I’m walking through exactly how I’m trading the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, gold, and Bitcoin into next week.
DXY
Last week was uneventful for the dollar with price grinding sideways all week. The bigger picture still favors the upside since we have that bullish change of character on the daily timeframe and the break out of the descending channel from earlier this year. The problem is, we’re currently sitting in premium, so I can’t justify buying here. What I need to see is a pullback into discount, ideally down toward 98.15 to mitigate that imbalance, before looking for a lower timeframe change of character to get long.
EURUSD
The euro is essentially the inverse of the dollar, and the daily timeframe still has that bearish change of character intact. We have lower highs and lower lows forming inside the descending channel, which is starting to look more like a rounded top. The four hour bullish change of character is a bit subjective because of how shallow that pullback was, and the daily structure supersedes it. I’m still bearish overall, but to actually short this, I need to see price push back up to mitigate the imbalance around 1.17. Anything lower than that is just chasing.
GBPUSD
The pound looks more sideways and choppy than the euro. We have a bullish change of character on one side and a bearish change of character on the other, which makes this one conflicting. But when I cross reference with the DXY daily structure, I can’t be bullish on the pound if I’m longer term bullish on the dollar. So I remain bearish on the pound, but just like the euro, I need to see price move up into premium to mitigate those imbalances before I can look for shorts. The one thing worth watching is the higher lows forming on the one hour, which could give us that push into premium next week.
Gold (XAUUSD)
Gold went completely sideways last week as well. We do have a recent break of structure, so sellers are still in control, and there are still imbalances below 4,300 that I think this market is headed toward. The setup is the same as the others, price is sitting in discount right now, so there’s nothing for me to short. I need to see gold rally back up into premium above the 50% level to mitigate that imbalance and give me a lower timeframe shift before I can get short.
Bitcoin
The crypto market is in trouble. Stocks, especially the AI complex, keep making new all time highs, and Bitcoin can’t do anything with it. There’s also a CME gap up near 79K that has yet to fill, and the longer it sits unfilled, the lower the odds get. Short term, I’m targeting 71 to 72K to mitigate that imbalance from the four hour displacement. Longer term, I’m looking at the mid 40K area. We have a weekly change of character, an unmitigated displacement back from 2024 sitting in that 40 to mid 40K zone, and the bear flag measured move points to the same area. I’d expect buyers to step in around 71 to 72K, but any bounce there is a selling opportunity in my view until we’re down at the lows.
00: 00 DXY
04: 47 EURUSD
08: 30 GBPUSD
12: 45 Gold (XAUUSD)
14: 22 Bitcoin
SMC LESSONS
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Premium, discount, and OTE explained
https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8
Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.