Today’s Bitcoin analysis examines whether the BTC bottom is in, and what must happen to confirm the bear market is over.
The two questions on every crypto trader’s mind are:
Is the Bitcoin bottom in, and is the bear market finally over?
We now have a compelling body of evidence that says, it might be.
Over the past 3 weeks, BTC has reclaimed the 50-Month moving average, flipped several key daily moving averages, broken through structural resistance at $69,000 and pushed back above its macro trend line. Then Scott Bessent’s bond-buyback announcement helped trigger a massive 23% weekly candle that completely changed the structure of this chart.
But there is still one major problem: We do not have confirmation.
Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating at one of the most important decision points on the chart—it spent yesterday trapped between the 50-Week moving average near $79,700 and a confluence of support around the $78,380 Timescape R/S Flip and the 21-Day moving average.
A clean reclaim and successful retest of the 50-Week moving average would strengthen the bull-market thesis considerably. IMO, reclaiming the Q1 Timescape Levels at $87,500 and $91,500 would strengthen it even more.
But if Bitcoin continues getting rejected here—or loses local support—the market could retrace a meaningful portion of that 23% move, and potentially a whole lot more.
That is why I’m not going all-in in either direction. I’m holding a modest short from approximately $80,300 as a hedge, I’ve already taken profit, and I’m preserving dry powder for potential accumulation zones at $69,000, $58,000 and possibly sub-$50k if the market gives it to us.
In this update, I’ll show you the levels that could confirm the bull market, the signals that would warn of a deeper correction, and what liquidity and order flow are revealing about the sell pressure coming from the market’s largest cohorts.
📊 Trade the charts. Ignore the noise.
⚠️ Opinions only. Not financial advice.
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