Rob Roy’s overall view of the U.S. markets is cautious and bearish in the short term. He highlights that the S&P is forming a confirmed or near-confirmed Elliott Wave Zig-Zag to the downside, with the potential for SPY to drop to the 540 level. Economic data such as hotter-than-expected PCE and falling consumer confidence are weighing on sentiment, and the lack of consumer spending raises concerns for this consumer-driven economy. While the Fed is unlikely to cut rates soon, the bond market’s odd behavior—falling yields on a down day—may signal expectations of economic weakness ahead. Most major indices (DIA, QQQ, IWM) are showing weakness, with small caps particularly under pressure. Volatility (VIX) has ticked up but not spiked, and assets like gold and silver are at resistance levels. Crypto had a risk-off flush, and equities like Nvidia and Palantir are also under pressure. Overall, Rob sees more downside potential unless markets can show early-week strength or confirmation of support holds.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00: 00 – Introduction
00: 24 – US Market Update
03: 29 – Economic News
04: 31 – SPY
05: 05 – VIX
06: 04 – TLT
07: 45 – TNX
08: 34 – DIA
09: 06 – QQQ
09: 51 – IWM
11: 06 – GLD
12: 00 – SLV
12: 43 – UNG
14: 42 – USO
16: 16 – Bitcoin (BTC)
17: 25 – ETH
18: 12 – XRP
18: 54 – SOL
19: 30 – ADA
20: 03 – GDX
21: 10 – CELH
24: 05 – NVDA
25: 20 – PLTR
26: 36 – TSLA
28: 09 – INDA
29: 40 – TradeFinder Info
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In this week’s market update, Rob Roy expands on the current weakness across U.S. equities by focusing on the structure and implications of a developing zigzag pattern in the S&P 500. While not yet fully confirmed, this corrective wave pattern suggests further downside is likely, with a potential move toward the 540 level on SPY. Friday’s close on the low, along with significant separation from the 10-day moving average, signals short-term oversold conditions—but not necessarily a reversal. The broader tape was negative across the board, with no real buyers stepping in, which supports the idea that a deeper correction could be unfolding.
Economic data added fuel to the selloff. The PCE report came in hotter than expected, dampening hopes for a near-term Fed rate cut. Although personal income rose, consumer spending lagged, pointing to a cautious consumer—a red flag in a consumer-driven economy. Rob also noted that falling consumer confidence and the absence of a clear Fed policy catalyst further contribute to market uncertainty.
Across other major indices, the Dow (DIA), Nasdaq (QQQ), and small caps (IWM) all rolled over after failing to break key resistance levels. The IWM looks particularly vulnerable, having closed at the key 200 level and potentially targeting the 161.8% extension level if follow-through occurs. The VIX ticked higher but hasn’t spiked, suggesting that investor fear remains relatively contained—possibly setting the stage for a sharper move if volatility expands.
In the bond market, yields surprisingly fell despite equity weakness, suggesting a flight to safety or growing concerns about future economic softness. Gold and silver remain in uptrends but are testing resistance, and Rob warns they may pause or pull back unless new catalysts emerge. Cryptocurrencies had a risk-off breakdown, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others all breaking support from recent triangle patterns. Overall, the market is showing classic signs of risk aversion, with caution dominating across asset classes heading into next week.