Bitcoin finally tagged the TBO fast line on Monday’s pump, reaching $67,292 after breaking back above the key $63,913 support area over the weekend. That move hit the rejection target I was watching, but the structure still looks like a bear flag: a strong bounce, a higher high, and now the more logical next step is a higher low or a breakdown back toward support. I used this bounce exactly the way I said I would, taking profit lower and adding back to short exposure as BTC and ETH pushed into the fast-line rejection zone.
Ethereum wicked all the way up to $1,849 and rejected at the daily fast line without closing inside the cloud, which is the same basic short-entry logic I’m watching on Bitcoin. Stablecoin dominance fell deeper into the cloud than expected, alt dominance got a short-term bounce, and a lot of charts look green only because they pushed up into fast lines, clouds, or old support now acting as resistance. My bias is still cautious-to-bearish here: BTC, ETH, TOTALS, TOTAL50, TOTAL100, and OTHERS all need to prove they can hold these recoveries instead of rolling over after the rejection.
TradFi is just as important today, especially with USDJPY at a nine-year high and the Bank of Japan rate-hike setup putting yen carry risk back on the table. S&P futures, NASDAQ, Nvidia, VIX, Nikkei, oil, gold, silver, and uranium all had major gap/rejection-style moves, and I’m watching those gaps closely because macro pressure can still spill into crypto. In my picks and your picks, the theme is the same: some charts are still strong, some have bullish reversal warnings, but after this much bounce into resistance I’m mostly looking for pullbacks, fast-line retests, and cleaner entries instead of chasing pumps.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00: 00 BTC tags the TBO fast line and hits the rejection target
03: 04 Ethereum rejection, short-position logic, and adding on the bounce
05: 59 Stablecoin dominance, alt dominance, TOTALS, and BTC dominance
08: 48 TradFi overview: DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY, and yen carry risk
10: 40 S&P futures, NASDAQ, Nvidia, VIX, Nikkei, oil, gold, silver, and uranium
13: 04 TBT resources, journal app testers, Kraken, Toobit, and viewer requests
15: 07 My picks: SPX6900, KAS, CAKE, SOL, HYPE, TAO, NEAR, BEAT, WLD, DEXE, and FARTCOIN
18: 44 Bearish fast-line rejection watchlist: BNB, ADA, LTC, HBAR, SUI, SHIB, CRO, ALGO, FET, BONK, PENGU, SEI, WIF, VVV, INJ, ZEC, XLM, VELVET, AERO, and H
24: 01 Your picks: BILL, TRX, WAL, BNKR, TIBBIR, ATOM, and LINK
26: 39 Stock picks: SPCX, AEHR, SEI, MOD, NOW, CELH, AMZN, and SIVE
30: 58 SUI deep dive reminder and final thoughts
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