Kalshi crypto strategy: same signal, two ways in. One lost 6¢ a trade

Full video: Kalshi crypto strategy: we tested 38 on the 15 minute markets. Here is every result
https://youtu.be/gmEmdowq7Bc

All 38 strategy results in one table, free: https://pondletter.com/kalshi-strategies/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=short&utm_campaign=AWrS6993bWE

Two bots on Kalshi’s 15 minute crypto markets, same signal, same two days, one contract a trade, on paper. Bot A rests a bid and waits to be filled. Bot B buys at the ask and is filled every time. Bot A finished up 94 cents over 84 fills. Bot B lost $16.91 over 281 fills, about 6 cents each. Their win rates were 83 and 79 percent. On these books the spread costs about 6 cents a fill, and no edge this lab found was larger than that, which is why every strategy that survived rested orders. The chart is a real 15 minute market from August 5 and the two lines are every trade both bots made.

Win rate is not edge, the study: https://pondletter.com/the-graveyard-forty-experiments-on-kalshi-and-the-one-that-survived/
Kalshi 15 minute BTC, the long video: https://youtu.be/CwcpdW7H3BY

Before you build a Kalshi bot, the lessons in order, free: https://pondletter.com/before-you-build/
Four free tools and the context file for your AI: https://github.com/Pondletter/labkit-starter

Pondletter is a public trading lab on Kalshi. Every strategy is tested, every result is published, and the losses are included. Real money results are sealed nightly on the proof page.

The Sunday board, free by email: https://pondletter.com/#/portal/signup/free
X: https://x.com/pondletter

New to Kalshi? Start here, ten terms on real markets: https://youtu.be/WFnt9kOFItY

Opening a Kalshi account? Our referral link: https://kalshi.com/r/aa772536-fec0-4745-a342-d40c2c207d41
Disclosure: Kalshi adds a bonus credit to new accounts that trade $25, in an amount Kalshi sets, and the lab receives a trading credit too. Not advice.

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