What’s New

– The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire twice over the weekend, after Iran attacked a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz that allegedly failed to follow required navigation instructions. Both sides described their military actions as “responses to the other side’s violation.” The latest update is that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt attacks against each other and plan to meet in Doha, Qatar on June 30 to resolve the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.

– OpenAI officially released the GPT-5.6 model series, including the flagship Sol, balanced Terra, and lightweight Luna versions. Pricing is around 50% of Fable, kicking off a North American large model price war.

– The U.S. government is close to allowing Anthropic to restore access to Fable 5. On Friday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick sent a letter to Anthropic announcing the removal of export restrictions on Claude Mythos 5, allowing more than 100 government-approved companies and federal agencies to access the model.

Trade Setup

Last Friday, Apple’s forced price hikes and OpenAI’s IPO delay weighed on AI hardware names. AI software rebounded from recent lows, showing a capital rotation effect. Under extreme market conditions, concerns over overall market health are rising.

In the bigger picture, AI remains in a high-level consolidation phase. The trade is becoming more crowded, while crowded consensus names continue to receive capital support.

On the macro side, the focus is shifting more toward Fed policy. Warsh’s style is very different from Powell’s: he refuses to provide any forward guidance. The next FOMC meeting is on July 29, only six weeks away, which could amplify near-term volatility.

SoDEX Key Assets Watchlist

– US Tech Index (USTECH-100), Oil (CL), Gold ($XAUT), Bitcoin ($BTC)

– MAG7 ($NVDA $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT $TSLA $AAPL), AI (SNDK, MU, AMD, INTC, TSM)