The best change I made to this system did not add a signal. It added two ways of standing down. ⏱️
Spread is a toll the account pays on every trade. The system already measures how large that toll is relative to what a trade can realistically earn, so now, when the toll is too big a share of that, it simply skips the day. No prediction, no indicator, just an affordability check. It ends up skipping roughly one trade in three, concentrated in the worst stretch of 2024. The second change is smaller position size while the account is below its own peak, returning to normal on recovery.
On the same window and the same account, those two switches took worst peak to trough loss from around 57 percent down to about 22 percent, with more profit from fewer trades. I should be clear that this configuration is specific to the tighter of my two brokers; on a wider feed it would stand aside almost every day.
A drawdown you planned for beats one that ambushes you. Doing nothing, deliberately, turned out to be worth more than anything I added.
Educational purpose only. Not financial advice.
If you think I have this wrong, say so. That is useful to me.
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